Risk, Ruin & the Math of Survival

Most traders obsess over entries and ignore the one variable that actually decides survival: how much they risk per trade. This course fixes that, in five lessons: the arithmetic of ruin, the R framework that measures your edge, the sizing formula and its circuit breakers, the Kelly criterion that bounds it all mathematically, and — last, deliberately — sizing up on quality.

★ The course

Five lessons LIVE

• 1Survival first — the drawdown-recovery table, risk of ruin, and the survival structure around your account.
• 2R-multiples & expectancy — one unit for everything, and the number that says whether you have an edge.
• 3Sizing in practice — the formula, stops the market sets, volatility and gap risk, and the circuit breakers.
• 4The Kelly criterion — the growth-optimal bet, why full Kelly is violent, and what it teaches even uncalculated.
• 5Sizing by quality — the A/B/C/D grading system and the earned right to bet big.

I Why this is the master skill

Survival first

• CONCEPTRisk & position sizing — the most important skill in trading, from first principles.
• CONCEPTRisk of ruin & expectancy — why how much you bet matters more than how often you're right.

II The math you actually need

R-multiples, the 1% rule & expectancy

Everything reduces to three ideas: define 1R (entry minus stop), risk a small fixed fraction (often ≤1–2%) so a string of losses can't end you, and measure your edge as expectancy in R.

• CONCEPTThe sizing formula, worked step by step.
• CONCEPTExpectancy & the ruin curve.

III Sizing to volatility

Let the market set the stop

• CONCEPTATR & volatility — size so a fixed dollar risk equals a chosen ATR multiple, so quiet markets earn larger size and wild ones smaller.
• CONCEPTKeltner & Supertrend — ATR-based stops in practice.

IV Put it to work

Apply it to every trade

Sizing isn't a separate activity — it's the last step of every setup. Each strategy playbook on this site defines 1R and sizes from it; log every result in R in your journal so your expectancy becomes a measured number, not a guess.